Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

83.29 – 51.95

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.2 ±18.1

5147Hornets

Season APEX 87.5Event APEX 15.21Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 33.23Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5189Team K.I.S.S.

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 34.85Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.2 ±13.3

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 30.5Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 2.92Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 18.53Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5147, 1723, 5189

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5147, 1723, 5189

Auto

20.3 24%

Teleop

41.0 48%

Endgame

24.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 757, 2457, 9445

/ 100 compat

Projected

52 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 757, 2457, 9445

Auto

20.0 45%

Teleop

8.8 20%

Endgame

16.0 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.3pts

Blue projected score52pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.3
Score range: 30–105
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 121.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.2Season APEX256.2

20.3Auto20

41Teleop8.8

24.4Endgame16

0Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	48	29
endgame	32	3
foul	0	0
total	95	47

Result

Final score

95 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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