Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.29 – 124.06

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.8 ±15.8

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 55.57Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 73.4Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5147Hornets

Season APEX 87.5Event APEX 26.32Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.5 ±14.6

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 64Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5119Team STEAM

Season APEX 58Event APEX 21.09Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 38.97Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1802, 9410, 5147

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1802, 9410, 5147

Auto

33.2 22%

Teleop

86.5 57%

Endgame

31.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1730, 5119, 9316

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1730, 5119, 9316

Auto

37.3 31%

Teleop

57.8 47%

Endgame

27.0 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.3pts

Blue projected score124.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.2
Score range: 100–179
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.8Season APEX269.5

33.2Auto37.3

86.5Teleop57.8

31.4Endgame27

15Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	45
teleop	5	54
endgame	29	11
foul	0	5
total	56	115

Result

Final score

56 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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