Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.08 – 277.9

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.6 ±14.5

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 0.3Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 39.28Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX -2.5Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.2 ±12.4

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 211.61Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 25.84Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 40.45Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1763, 9316, 1994

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.1 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1763, 9316, 1994

Auto

9.1 33%

Teleop

9.3 34%

Endgame

9.3 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1987, 935, 4959

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1987, 935, 4959

Auto

57.5 21%

Teleop

145.8 54%

Endgame

67.9 25%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.42 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.1pts

Blue projected score277.9pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -240.8
Score range: 15–300
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 120.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.6Season APEX488.2

9.1Auto57.5

9.3Teleop145.8

9.3Endgame67.9

70Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	46
teleop	22	176
endgame	14	67
foul	0	20
total	48	309

Result

Final score

48 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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