Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.09 – 139.8

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 67.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.8 ±14.7

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 91.39Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 18.76Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5119Team STEAM

Season APEX 58Event APEX 36.94Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.7 ±13.3

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 53.29Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 77.91Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 8.6Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2357, 937, 5119

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2357, 937, 5119

Auto

29.6 20%

Teleop

91.0 62%

Endgame

27.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2345, 5268, 6843

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2345, 5268, 6843

Auto

18.2 14%

Teleop

81.2 60%

Endgame

35.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.1pts

Blue projected score139.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.3
Score range: 118–169
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 121.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.8Season APEX317.7

29.6Auto18.2

91Teleop81.2

27.2Endgame35.1

50Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	14	83
endgame	12	10
foul	0	10
total	35	116

Result

Final score

35 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 67.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.