Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

21.86 – 75.07

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180 ±15.6

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 28.23Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX -6.47Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 0.1Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.9 ±13.9

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 18.66Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 55.43Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 0.98Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2410, 8825, 10453

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2410, 8825, 10453

Auto

14.5 59%

Teleop

6.4 26%

Endgame

3.7 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5141, 1802, 1847

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5141, 1802, 1847

Auto

12.7 19%

Teleop

39.8 60%

Endgame

13.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score21.9pts

Blue projected score75.1pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.2
Score range: 0–97
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 122.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180Season APEX280.9

14.5Auto12.7

6.4Teleop39.8

3.7Endgame13.9

57Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	29
teleop	10	22
endgame	3	6
foul	5	0
total	31	57

Result

Final score

31 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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