Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.73 – 88.44

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.1 ±13.3

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 33.03Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 28.1Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 11.6Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.1 ±13.4

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 27.88Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 39.5Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 21.06Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4418, 757, 1764

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 757, 1764

Auto

28.6 48%

Teleop

22.2 37%

Endgame

9.1 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5098, 9316, 1769

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5098, 9316, 1769

Auto

13.7 19%

Teleop

43.2 59%

Endgame

16.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.7pts

Blue projected score88.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.7
Score range: 51–110
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.1Season APEX216.1

28.6Auto13.7

22.2Teleop43.2

9.1Endgame16.9

60Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	16
teleop	32	13
endgame	17	26
foul	0	0
total	87	55

Result

Final score

87 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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