Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.32 – 262.14

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.9 ±14.5

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 8.23Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX -1.13Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 34.22Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.3 ±14.5

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 201.94Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5147Hornets

Season APEX 87.5Event APEX 2.54Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 57.66Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6843, 1994, 1723

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6843, 1994, 1723

Auto

7.9 20%

Teleop

22.2 56%

Endgame

9.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1987, 5147, 1810

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1987, 5147, 1810

Auto

68.2 26%

Teleop

134.5 52%

Endgame

58.1 22%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.5 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.3pts

Blue projected score262.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -220.8
Score range: 19–284
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.9Season APEX553.3

7.9Auto68.2

22.2Teleop134.5

9.4Endgame58.1

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	87
teleop	21	207
endgame	5	85
foul	0	0
total	38	379

Result

Final score

38 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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