Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.53 – 30.19

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.4 ±14.5

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 70.18Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 10.71Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 48.64Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.6 ±13.9

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX -0.59Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX -1.95Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 32.73Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1730, 937, 2345

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1730, 937, 2345

Auto

40.4 29%

Teleop

79.8 58%

Endgame

17.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2457, 1763, 4959

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2457, 1763, 4959

Auto

7.7 32%

Teleop

3.7 15%

Endgame

12.9 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.5pts

Blue projected score30.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.3
Score range: 8–152
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 121.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.4Season APEX217.6

40.4Auto7.7

79.8Teleop3.7

17.5Endgame12.9

48Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	11
teleop	101	47
endgame	47	18
foul	5	0
total	190	76

Result

Final score

190 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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