Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.05 – 184.98

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 27 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327 ±16.2

10682Robo-Yotes

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 10.87Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 94.46Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4809Black Knight Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 30.72Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.2 ±13.5

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 104.87Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX -0.5Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 80.61Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10682, 2357, 4809

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10682, 2357, 4809

Auto

37.3 28%

Teleop

65.5 49%

Endgame

29.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9126, 8825, 5801

/ 100 compat

Projected

185 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9126, 8825, 5801

Auto

32.8 18%

Teleop

102.6 57%

Endgame

44.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.1pts

Blue projected score185pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.9
Score range: 114–207
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 121.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327Season APEX562.2

37.3Auto32.8

65.5Teleop102.6

29.9Endgame44.8

81Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	20
teleop	79	87
endgame	15	31
foul	0	0
total	129	138

Result

Final score

129 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 27 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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