Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.73 – 45.14

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

62 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.6 ±14.5

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 2.19Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 22.66Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 12.88Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.9 ±15.1

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 14.86Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX -6.13Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5119Team STEAM

Season APEX 58Event APEX 36.41Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10453, 935, 1764

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10453, 935, 1764

Auto

13.7 37%

Teleop

14.3 38%

Endgame

9.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9445, 5013, 5119

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9445, 5013, 5119

Auto

19.6 38%

Teleop

13.2 25%

Endgame

19.2 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.7pts

Blue projected score45.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.4
Score range: 16–67
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.6Season APEX267.9

13.7Auto19.6

14.3Teleop13.2

9.5Endgame19.2

28Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	21
teleop	26	25
endgame	22	8
foul	0	0
total	62	54

Result

Final score

62 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 16.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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