Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.21 – 238.54

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.9 ±13.9

1825The Cyborgs

Season APEX 94.4Event APEX 21.31Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 4.5Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 34.4Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.8 ±12.8

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 164.31Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 13.81Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 60.42Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1825, 1847, 2410

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.2 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1825, 1847, 2410

Auto

6.4 12%

Teleop

30.4 56%

Endgame

17.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1986, 1775, 9410

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1986, 1775, 9410

Auto

45.2 19%

Teleop

145.0 62%

Endgame

43.9 19%

Strengths

· 1986 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60.2pts

Blue projected score238.5pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -178.3
Score range: 38–261
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.9Season APEX453.8

6.4Auto45.2

30.4Teleop145

17.6Endgame43.9

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	47
teleop	5	108
endgame	4	15
foul	0	40
total	18	210

Result

Final score

18 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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