Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.95 – 56.44

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.8 ±13.3

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 4.65Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 8.65Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 0.65Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.4 ±17

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 23.88Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4809Black Knight Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 28.59Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 3.97Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6843, 1764, 2457

/ 100 compat

Projected

14 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6843, 1764, 2457

Auto

6.2 54%

Teleop

2.8 24%

Endgame

2.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1775, 4809, 1763

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1775, 4809, 1763

Auto

15.8 29%

Teleop

22.7 42%

Endgame

15.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score14pts

Blue projected score56.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.5
Score range: -10–80
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 71 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.8Season APEX157.4

6.2Auto15.8

2.8Teleop22.7

2.5Endgame15.7

9Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	15
teleop	11	20
endgame	8	8
foul	0	0
total	28	43

Result

Final score

28 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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