Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.3 – 230.93

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.9 ±16

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 59.01Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 24.37Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5189Team K.I.S.S.

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 29.92Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.8 ±12.7

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 71.77Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 74.44Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 84.72Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1802, 5098, 5189

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1802, 5098, 5189

Auto

24.6 22%

Teleop

72.3 63%

Endgame

17.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9551, 5126, 5268

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9551, 5126, 5268

Auto

34.2 17%

Teleop

124.5 61%

Endgame

44.4 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.3pts

Blue projected score230.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.6
Score range: 91–253
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 122.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.9Season APEX353.8

24.6Auto34.2

72.3Teleop124.5

17.2Endgame44.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	18
teleop	78	94
endgame	33	59
foul	0	0
total	131	171

Result

Final score

131 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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