Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.71 – 8.57

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.7 ±13.9

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 33.53Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 22.6Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 68.58Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.2 ±14.5

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX -4.83Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX -5.72Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 19.12Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4418, 1769, 1730

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 1769, 1730

Auto

40.5 33%

Teleop

58.6 48%

Endgame

23.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2457, 1994, 5141

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2457, 1994, 5141

Auto

4.2 0%

Teleop

-1.1 100%

Endgame

-3.4 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.7pts

Blue projected score8.6pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.1
Score range: -13–147
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 123.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.7Season APEX209.2

40.5Auto4.2

58.6Teleop-1.1

23.6Endgame-3.4

69Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	3
teleop	74	5
endgame	10	12
foul	5	20
total	136	40

Result

Final score

136 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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