Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

1.4 – 49.67

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 74 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.2 ±16.2

5119Team STEAM

Season APEX 58Event APEX 22.47Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX -12.68Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX -8.39Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.7 ±17

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 21.24Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4809Black Knight Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 24.92Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 3.51Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5119, 1763, 10453

/ 100 compat

Projected

1.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5119, 1763, 10453

Auto

8.1 100%

Teleop

-1.9 0%

Endgame

-0.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 757, 4809, 937

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 757, 4809, 937

Auto

20.5 50%

Teleop

10.5 25%

Endgame

10.3 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score1.4pts

Blue projected score49.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.3
Score range: -21–72
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.2Season APEX245.7

8.1Auto20.5

-1.9Teleop10.5

-0.6Endgame10.3

79Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	18
teleop	44	63
endgame	37	25
foul	0	0
total	93	106

Result

Final score

93 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 74 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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