Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.49 – 107.39

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.7 ±13.9

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 52.94Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 32.2Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 100.35Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.7 ±13.9

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 3.64Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 80.43Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 23.32Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2345, 1723, 9126

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2345, 1723, 9126

Auto

40.4 22%

Teleop

96.9 54%

Endgame

42.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8825, 5126, 1775

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8825, 5126, 1775

Auto

14.5 14%

Teleop

59.1 59%

Endgame

26.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score185.5pts

Blue projected score107.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.1
Score range: 85–207
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 122.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.7Season APEX261.7

40.4Auto14.5

96.9Teleop59.1

42.5Endgame26.9

0Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	23
teleop	123	43
endgame	38	6
foul	0	0
total	191	72

Result

Final score

191 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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