Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.43 – 76.16

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303 ±13.3

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX -3.61Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 25.15Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 49.89Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±17

5189Team K.I.S.S.

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 36.91Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10682Robo-Yotes

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 11.72Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 27.53Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6843, 9316, 1802

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6843, 9316, 1802

Auto

20.8 37%

Teleop

34.2 61%

Endgame

1.4 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5189, 10682, 935

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5189, 10682, 935

Auto

24.3 30%

Teleop

37.5 47%

Endgame

18.0 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.4pts

Blue projected score76.2pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.7
Score range: 49–98
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303Season APEX188.3

20.8Auto24.3

34.2Teleop37.5

1.4Endgame18

19Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	13
teleop	101	14
endgame	36	17
foul	0	0
total	165	44

Result

Final score

165 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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