Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.75 – 230.29

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.9 ±12.8

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 160.03Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1825The Cyborgs

Season APEX 94.4Event APEX 22.82Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 2.9Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.1 ±12.4

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 197.24Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 20.93Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 12.12Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1986, 1825, 5013

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1986, 1825, 5013

Auto

31.8 18%

Teleop

113.9 63%

Endgame

34.3 19%

Strengths

· 1986 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1987, 5098, 5141

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1987, 5098, 5141

Auto

54.6 24%

Teleop

117.8 53%

Endgame

51.1 23%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score185.8pts

Blue projected score230.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.5
Score range: 164–252
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 121.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.9Season APEX461.1

31.8Auto54.6

113.9Teleop117.8

34.3Endgame51.1

17Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	51
teleop	109	150
endgame	29	42
foul	0	15
total	170	258

Result

Final score

170 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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