Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.08 – 85.42

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.4 ±13.5

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 50.54Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 89.71Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX -4.17Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.1 ±13.3

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 19.78Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 3.82Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 61.82Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9410, 2357, 1994

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9410, 2357, 1994

Auto

22.8 17%

Teleop

78.1 58%

Endgame

34.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1723, 757, 5126

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1723, 757, 5126

Auto

16.3 17%

Teleop

44.5 47%

Endgame

34.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.1pts

Blue projected score85.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.7
Score range: 63–158
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.4Season APEX317.1

22.8Auto16.3

78.1Teleop44.5

34.7Endgame34.1

40Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	32
teleop	102	68
endgame	15	25
foul	5	65
total	160	190

Result

Final score

160 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 64.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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