Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.98 – 1.24

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327 ±13.3

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 30.97Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 76.28Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 1.73Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.7 ±14.5

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX -14.31Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 19.06Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX -3.51Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1810, 5268, 1775

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1810, 5268, 1775

Auto

26.6 30%

Teleop

47.2 53%

Endgame

15.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2457, 1769, 8825

/ 100 compat

Projected

1.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2457, 1769, 8825

Auto

-0.4 12%

Teleop

-4.2 100%

Endgame

1.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109pts

Blue projected score1.2pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.7
Score range: -21–131
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327Season APEX208.7

26.6Auto-0.4

47.2Teleop-4.2

15.8Endgame1.3

72Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	15
teleop	135	5
endgame	41	7
foul	0	5
total	217	32

Result

Final score

217 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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