Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.19 – 296.43

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.8 ±14.5

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 8.94Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 46.31Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 16.94Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 559.9 ±11.2

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 69.6Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 205.9Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 20.93Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 937, 4418, 5141

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.2 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 937, 4418, 5141

Auto

26.3 40%

Teleop

34.6 53%

Endgame

4.7 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5801, 1987, 9445

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5801, 1987, 9445

Auto

65.8 23%

Teleop

156.4 54%

Endgame

65.9 23%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.49 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.2pts

Blue projected score296.4pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -224.2
Score range: 48–320
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.8Season APEX559.9

26.3Auto65.8

34.6Teleop156.4

4.7Endgame65.9

46Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	76
teleop	49	184
endgame	1	84
foul	10	0
total	91	344

Result

Final score

91 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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