Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.98 – 94.45

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 66.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.2 ±14.5

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX -6.66Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX -7.3Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 82.94Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±14.5

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 28.54Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 42.29Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 23.62Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5013, 5141, 9126

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5013, 5141, 9126

Auto

22.2 32%

Teleop

34.0 49%

Endgame

13.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9316, 2410, 937

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9316, 2410, 937

Auto

25.7 39%

Teleop

42.3 64%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69pts

Blue projected score94.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.5
Score range: 47–116
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 122.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.2Season APEX220.6

22.2Auto25.7

34Teleop42.3

13.9Endgame-1.6

65Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	22
teleop	77	21
endgame	50	12
foul	0	0
total	162	55

Result

Final score

162 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 66.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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