Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.91 – 15.95

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

408 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553 ±12.4

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 190.5Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 59.58Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 74.83Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.5 ±17

4809Black Knight Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 16.31Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX -0.72Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 0.36Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1987, 1730, 9551

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.9 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1987, 1730, 9551

Auto

73.2 23%

Teleop

173.3 54%

Endgame

75.0 23%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4809, 6843, 10453

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.9 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4809, 6843, 10453

Auto

14.2 71%

Teleop

6.9 35%

Endgame

-1.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score324.9pts

Blue projected score15.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 309
Score range: -6–347
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553Season APEX212.5

73.2Auto14.2

173.3Teleop6.9

75Endgame-1.1

34Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	14
teleop	212	8
endgame	79	4
foul	15	0
total	408	26

Result

Final score

408 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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