Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.86 – 82.93

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251 ±14.5

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 4.21Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 67.64Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 46.01Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244 ±13.9

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 24.26Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1825The Cyborgs

Season APEX 94.4Event APEX 31.49Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 27.18Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1763, 2345, 1802

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1763, 2345, 1802

Auto

24.3 22%

Teleop

60.3 54%

Endgame

27.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1764, 1825, 9445

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1764, 1825, 9445

Auto

20.5 24%

Teleop

48.7 57%

Endgame

15.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score117.9pts

Blue projected score82.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.9
Score range: 61–140
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251Season APEX244

24.3Auto20.5

60.3Teleop48.7

27.4Endgame15.6

56Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	15
teleop	55	13
endgame	1	11
foul	0	0
total	85	39

Result

Final score

85 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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