Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.75 – 215.54

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.7 ±12.2

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 6.27Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 23.43Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 95.05Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.6 ±14.9

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 21.47Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 173.39Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5147Hornets

Season APEX 87.5Event APEX 20.68Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1775, 5098, 5801

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1775, 5098, 5801

Auto

18.7 17%

Teleop

69.1 62%

Endgame

24.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 935, 1986, 5147

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 935, 1986, 5147

Auto

39.5 19%

Teleop

108.1 51%

Endgame

65.8 31%

Strengths

· 1986 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.8pts

Blue projected score215.5pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.8
Score range: 103–238
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.7Season APEX401.6

18.7Auto39.5

69.1Teleop108.1

24.1Endgame65.8

115Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	36
teleop	54	129
endgame	31	31
foul	5	0
total	108	196

Result

Final score

108 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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