Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.64 – 43.94

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287 ±15

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 17.55Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 17.82Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 28.27Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.8 ±12.7

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 10.36Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 10Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 23.58Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1769, 937, 1810

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1769, 937, 1810

Auto

20.1 36%

Teleop

34.8 63%

Endgame

0.5 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1723, 1847, 9316

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1723, 1847, 9316

Auto

10.6 39%

Teleop

16.0 59%

Endgame

0.7 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.6pts

Blue projected score43.9pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.7
Score range: 22–86
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287Season APEX264.8

20.1Auto10.6

34.8Teleop16

0.5Endgame0.7

91Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	15
teleop	37	25
endgame	10	22
foul	0	15
total	68	77

Result

Final score

68 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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