Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.9 – 107.7

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

119 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.5 ±15

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 31.95Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 69.91Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX -4.96Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.6 ±19.2

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX 15.38Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5189Team K.I.S.S.

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 59.76Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4809Black Knight Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 32.56Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2410, 9551, 5141

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2410, 9551, 5141

Auto

16.5 18%

Teleop

58.7 64%

Endgame

16.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1994, 5189, 4809

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1994, 5189, 4809

Auto

19.4 17%

Teleop

65.0 56%

Endgame

31.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.9pts

Blue projected score107.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.8
Score range: 75–130
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 123.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.5Season APEX165.6

16.5Auto19.4

58.7Teleop65

16.3Endgame31.5

144Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	14
teleop	61	8
endgame	23	7
foul	15	0
total	119	29

Result

Final score

119 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.