Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.89 – 174.18

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.9 ±13.9

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 2.02Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 82.76Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 37.11Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524 ±13.3

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 100.39Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 12.27Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 61.52Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10453, 5268, 9410

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10453, 5268, 9410

Auto

12.5 12%

Teleop

57.2 57%

Endgame

30.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9126, 6843, 4418

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9126, 6843, 4418

Auto

31.2 18%

Teleop

104.6 60%

Endgame

37.9 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.9pts

Blue projected score174.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.3
Score range: 100–196
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 123.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.9Season APEX524

12.5Auto31.2

57.2Teleop104.6

30.9Endgame37.9

49Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	37
teleop	76	46
endgame	23	13
foul	10	0
total	145	96

Result

Final score

145 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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