Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.94 – 150.72

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.5 ±12.2

1825The Cyborgs

Season APEX 94.4Event APEX 38.1Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX -13.88Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 100.72Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.7 ±15.1

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 49.38Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5119Team STEAM

Season APEX 58Event APEX 51.47Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 49.87Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1825, 2457, 5801

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1825, 2457, 5801

Auto

5.2 6%

Teleop

64.4 70%

Endgame

22.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4959, 5119, 1802

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4959, 5119, 1802

Auto

26.4 19%

Teleop

83.5 59%

Endgame

32.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.9pts

Blue projected score150.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.8
Score range: 103–173
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.5Season APEX276.7

5.2Auto26.4

64.4Teleop83.5

22.5Endgame32

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	27
teleop	56	83
endgame	17	35
foul	0	0
total	97	145

Result

Final score

97 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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