Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.18 – 76.3

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.1 ±13.9

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 65.1Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 99.02Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 20.06Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.4 ±13.9

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 28.11Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1825The Cyborgs

Season APEX 94.4Event APEX 20.12Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 28.07Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5268, 9126, 2410

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5268, 9126, 2410

Auto

33.5 20%

Teleop

90.5 54%

Endgame

44.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 935, 1825, 1723

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 935, 1825, 1723

Auto

14.7 20%

Teleop

45.7 62%

Endgame

13.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score184.2pts

Blue projected score76.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.9
Score range: 52–208
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.1Season APEX234.4

33.5Auto14.7

90.5Teleop45.7

44Endgame13.8

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	10
teleop	119	19
endgame	67	10
foul	20	0
total	250	39

Result

Final score

250 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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