Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.92 – 84.52

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 90.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.2 ±13.9

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX -3.16Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 21.61Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 32.47Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.6 ±14.9

5147Hornets

Season APEX 87.5Event APEX -15.26Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 70.87Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 28.91Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8825, 9445, 5098

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8825, 9445, 5098

Auto

19.5 33%

Teleop

36.0 60%

Endgame

4.5 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5147, 2357, 1730

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5147, 2357, 1730

Auto

41.4 39%

Teleop

46.9 44%

Endgame

17.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.9pts

Blue projected score84.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.6
Score range: 29–107
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 121.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.2Season APEX403.6

19.5Auto41.4

36Teleop46.9

4.5Endgame17.8

46Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	54
teleop	10	133
endgame	12	67
foul	0	0
total	39	254

Result

Final score

39 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 90.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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