Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.25 – 181.26

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.5 ±14.5

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 37.92Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 40.14Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 19.19Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.1 ±15.1

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 75.26Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 66.68Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5119Team STEAM

Season APEX 58Event APEX 39.32Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4959, 1769, 1723

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4959, 1769, 1723

Auto

11.5 11%

Teleop

56.6 55%

Endgame

34.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9126, 9551, 5119

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9126, 9551, 5119

Auto

39.3 21%

Teleop

101.9 56%

Endgame

41.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.3pts

Blue projected score181.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84
Score range: 76–202
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.5Season APEX494.1

11.5Auto39.3

56.6Teleop101.9

34.8Endgame41.6

39Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	32
teleop	32	139
endgame	11	65
foul	0	5
total	60	241

Result

Final score

60 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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