Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.01 – 71.17

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

326 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 117.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.1 ±15.3

4809Black Knight Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 15.22Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 21.43Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 164.36Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.2 ±16.5

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 14.23Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5189Team K.I.S.S.

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 40.4Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1825The Cyborgs

Season APEX 94.4Event APEX 16.54Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4809, 2345, 1987

/ 100 compat

Projected

201 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4809, 2345, 1987

Auto

35.9 18%

Teleop

111.7 56%

Endgame

53.0 26%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9410, 5189, 1825

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9410, 5189, 1825

Auto

12.8 22%

Teleop

42.3 73%

Endgame

3.1 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score201pts

Blue projected score71.2pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.8
Score range: 51–221
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 112.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.1Season APEX280.2

35.9Auto12.8

111.7Teleop42.3

53Endgame3.1

111Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	16
teleop	161	117
endgame	85	48
foul	0	0
total	326	181

Result

Final score

326 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 117.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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