Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.43 – 104.5

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.4 ±14.5

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 13.03Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 56.82Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 2.58Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.2 ±15.8

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 12.37Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5147Hornets

Season APEX 87.5Event APEX 1.22Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 90.91Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5013, 1810, 1763

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5013, 1810, 1763

Auto

29.6 45%

Teleop

37.9 58%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5141, 5147, 5268

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5141, 5147, 5268

Auto

20.5 28%

Teleop

30.2 41%

Endgame

22.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.4pts

Blue projected score104.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.1
Score range: 51–126
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 118.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.4Season APEX284.2

29.6Auto20.5

37.9Teleop30.2

-1.6Endgame22.5

206Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	15
teleop	5	40
endgame	0	30
foul	0	0
total	25	85

Result

Final score

25 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.