Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.15 – 45.86

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

337 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 80.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635 ±15.6

5189Team K.I.S.S.

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 11.07Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 58.58Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 135.5Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±15

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 10.8Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 14.69Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 20.37Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5189, 9126, 1986

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5189, 9126, 1986

Auto

42.7 21%

Teleop

112.0 55%

Endgame

49.5 24%

Strengths

· 1986 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 937, 8825, 1764

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 937, 8825, 1764

Auto

12.0 23%

Teleop

31.8 61%

Endgame

8.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.2pts

Blue projected score45.9pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.3
Score range: 25–226
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635Season APEX230.5

42.7Auto12

112Teleop31.8

49.5Endgame8.2

29Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	16
teleop	209	0
endgame	65	1
foul	0	0
total	337	17

Result

Final score

337 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 80.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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