Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.87 – 178.64

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.7 ±12.8

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 40.17Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 140.69Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 85.01Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.7 ±12.8

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 51.79Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 57.13Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 69.72Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 757, 1986, 9551

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 757, 1986, 9551

Auto

47.5 18%

Teleop

154.1 60%

Endgame

55.9 22%

Strengths

· 1986 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1810, 2345, 2357

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1810, 2345, 2357

Auto

41.0 22%

Teleop

110.8 60%

Endgame

32.0 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score265.9pts

Blue projected score178.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.2
Score range: 155–290
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.7Season APEX438.7

47.5Auto41

154.1Teleop110.8

55.9Endgame32

35Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	41
teleop	94	68
endgame	56	22
foul	5	0
total	194	131

Result

Final score

194 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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