Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.56 – 99.97

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

54 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 53.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.1 ±15

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX -2.44Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX -4.36Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 24.36Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.1 ±15

10682Robo-Yotes

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 19.59Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 20.72Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 59.66Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1763, 5141, 1730

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1763, 5141, 1730

Auto

23.9 93%

Teleop

8.1 32%

Endgame

-6.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10682, 10453, 1723

/ 100 compat

Projected

100 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10682, 10453, 1723

Auto

30.3 33%

Teleop

57.2 62%

Endgame

4.8 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score17.6pts

Blue projected score100pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.4
Score range: -2–120
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 113.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.1Season APEX219.1

23.9Auto30.3

8.1Teleop57.2

-6.3Endgame4.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	13
teleop	17	9
endgame	7	7
foul	0	0
total	54	29

Result

Final score

54 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 53.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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