Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.45 – 67.25

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.4 ±18.6

4809Black Knight Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 26.89Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5147Hornets

Season APEX 87.5Event APEX 15.12Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 51.44Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.6 ±12.7

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 8.76Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 4.03Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 54.46Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4809, 5147, 2410

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4809, 5147, 2410

Auto

16.0 18%

Teleop

33.3 38%

Endgame

37.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5098, 2345, 4418

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5098, 2345, 4418

Auto

20.8 31%

Teleop

37.3 56%

Endgame

8.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.4pts

Blue projected score67.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.2
Score range: 47–113
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.4Season APEX259.6

16Auto20.8

33.3Teleop37.3

37.7Endgame8.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	20
teleop	23	103
endgame	17	32
foul	0	0
total	57	155

Result

Final score

57 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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