Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.59 – 18.82

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 90.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.8 ±12.2

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 5.8Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX -12.54Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 95.33Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±13.9

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 15.8Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX -2.7Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 5.72Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4959, 2457, 1986

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4959, 2457, 1986

Auto

25.0 31%

Teleop

37.0 45%

Endgame

19.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6843, 9410, 5013

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6843, 9410, 5013

Auto

4.8 23%

Teleop

8.1 39%

Endgame

7.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.6pts

Blue projected score18.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.8
Score range: -1–109
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 110.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.8Season APEX368.8

25Auto4.8

37Teleop8.1

19.4Endgame7.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	8
teleop	139	25
endgame	54	0
foul	25	0
total	256	33

Result

Final score

256 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 90.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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