Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.03 – 81.32

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.8 ±15.1

5119Team STEAM

Season APEX 58Event APEX 52.74Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 3.37Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX -15.08Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.5 ±13.9

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX -6.76Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 37.27Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 50.81Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5119, 1775, 935

/ 100 compat

Projected

41 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5119, 1775, 935

Auto

17.4 42%

Teleop

24.2 58%

Endgame

0.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1764, 1810, 9551

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1764, 1810, 9551

Auto

29.6 37%

Teleop

34.5 43%

Endgame

16.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41pts

Blue projected score81.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.3
Score range: 21–101
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 109.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.8Season APEX329.5

17.4Auto29.6

24.2Teleop34.5

0.2Endgame16.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	34
teleop	19	120
endgame	30	37
foul	0	0
total	62	191

Result

Final score

62 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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