Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.69 – 139.47

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

135 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.3 ±15.6

5189Team K.I.S.S.

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 1.14Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 97.6Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 31.95Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.8 ±13.9

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 22.06Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 85.6Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 31.81Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5189, 5801, 757

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5189, 5801, 757

Auto

32.2 25%

Teleop

56.7 44%

Endgame

39.6 31%

Strengths

· 5801 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1730, 5268, 8825

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1730, 5268, 8825

Auto

30.8 23%

Teleop

71.6 54%

Endgame

29.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.7pts

Blue projected score139.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.8
Score range: 112–158
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 106.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.3Season APEX310.8

32.2Auto30.8

56.7Teleop71.6

39.6Endgame29.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	32
teleop	75	76
endgame	38	32
foul	0	0
total	135	140

Result

Final score

135 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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