Qualification · Qualification 13
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
25.88 – 13.77
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
95 – 60
Prediction correct · off by 57.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.6 ±15.8
Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 22.5Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 19.95Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 87.5Event APEX -16.57Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235 ±15
Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 7.01Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 22.5Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Season APEX 94.4Event APEX -15.74Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5126, 10453, 5147
17
/ 100 compatProjected
25.9 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 5126, 10453, 5147
Auto
17.6 79%
Teleop
-1.2 0%
Endgame
5.8 26%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1769, 10682, 1825
17
/ 100 compatProjected
13.8 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 1769, 10682, 1825
Auto
2.9 24%
Teleop
1.3 11%
Endgame
7.9 65%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.35
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score25.9pts
Blue projected score13.8pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 28%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 12.1
- Score range
- -6–46
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
272.6Season APEX235
17.6Auto2.9
-1.2Teleop1.3
5.8Endgame7.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 14 |
| teleop | 52 | 16 |
| endgame | 24 | 10 |
| foul | 0 | 20 |
| total | 95 | 60 |
Result
Final score
95 – 60
Prediction correct · off by 57.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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