Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.43 – 66.85

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 292

Prediction missed · off by 113.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.7 ±16

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 28.33Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 21.87Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4809Black Knight Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 27.23Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.9 ±12.8

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 12.28Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 11.47Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 43.1Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9316, 4959, 4809

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9316, 4959, 4809

Auto

27.2 38%

Teleop

35.1 49%

Endgame

9.6 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1723, 1802, 1986

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1723, 1802, 1986

Auto

17.0 26%

Teleop

22.2 34%

Endgame

25.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.4pts

Blue projected score66.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.6
Score range: 48–96
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 107.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.7Season APEX449.9

27.2Auto17

35.1Teleop22.2

9.6Endgame25.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	61
teleop	33	168
endgame	22	58
foul	10	5
total	80	292

Result

Final score

80 – 292

Prediction missed · off by 113.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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