Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.15 – 102.64

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 56.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.6 ±15.7

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 16Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 10.29Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5119Team STEAM

Season APEX 58Event APEX 32.86Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.4 ±15

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 11.64Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 75.07Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 15.93Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9410, 8825, 5119

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9410, 8825, 5119

Auto

21.4 37%

Teleop

22.0 38%

Endgame

14.3 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1764, 2410, 1763

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1764, 2410, 1763

Auto

19.9 21%

Teleop

47.7 49%

Endgame

29.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.2pts

Blue projected score102.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.5
Score range: 39–123
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.6Season APEX163.4

21.4Auto19.9

22Teleop47.7

14.3Endgame29.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	11
teleop	65	9
endgame	24	12
foul	0	0
total	101	32

Result

Final score

101 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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