Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

44.39 – 30.47

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 13 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.1 ±16.6

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 8.47Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5189Team K.I.S.S.

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 34.77Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 1.15Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.6 ±15

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 24.08Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX -1.92Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 8.31Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1847, 5189, 8825

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1847, 5189, 8825

Auto

8.9 20%

Teleop

19.6 43%

Endgame

16.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1769, 1994, 5013

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1769, 1994, 5013

Auto

6.8 26%

Teleop

8.4 33%

Endgame

10.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.4pts

Blue projected score30.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.9
Score range: 6–68
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 84 vs event baseline 132.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.1Season APEX260.6

8.9Auto6.8

19.6Teleop8.4

16.9Endgame10.6

30Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	6
teleop	18	27
endgame	10	15
foul	0	0
total	36	48

Result

Final score

36 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 13 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.