Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

561.73 – 502.3

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

387 – 541

Prediction missed · off by 106.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 792.8 ±9.8

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 168.24Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 175.04Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 218.45Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 839.6 ±8.7

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 168.56Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 173.29Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 160.45Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1792, 179, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

561.7 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1792, 179, 498

Auto

136.7 25%

Teleop

308.7 57%

Endgame

98.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6324, 4946, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

502.3 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 6324, 4946, 2337

Auto

97.7 20%

Teleop

283.9 57%

Endgame

117.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score561.7pts

Blue projected score502.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.4
Score range: 429–635
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 928 vs event baseline 404.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

792.8Season APEX839.6

136.7Auto97.7

308.7Teleop283.9

98Endgame117.9

98Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	162	101
teleop	156	249
endgame	59	176
foul	10	15
total	387	541

Result

Final score

387 – 541

Prediction missed · off by 106.7 pts

Match videos

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