Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
509.18 – 640.9
16%84%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
788 – 642
Prediction missed · off by 140 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 780.8 ±8.7
Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 174.12Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 143.39Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 191.67Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 834.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 186.82Rank 14Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 219.55Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 234.53Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9072, 7220, 836
80
/ 100 compatProjected
509.2 pts
~0.9 RP (championship)
Teams: 9072, 7220, 836
Auto
107.7 22%
Teleop
268.6 54%
Endgame
123.7 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 15%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 33, 3255, 67
86
/ 100 compatProjected
640.9 pts
~2.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 33, 3255, 67
Auto
108.6 17%
Teleop
351.2 55%
Endgame
180.1 28%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 15%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.59
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score509.2pts
Blue projected score640.9pts
Red win probability16%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 61%
Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 29%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -131.7
- Score range
- 436–714
- Upset likelihood
- 16%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
780.8Season APEX834.4
107.7Auto108.6
268.6Teleop351.2
123.7Endgame180.1
121Consistency95
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 126 | 163 |
| teleop | 382 | 328 |
| endgame | 225 | 116 |
| foul | 55 | 35 |
| total | 788 | 642 |
Result
Final score
788 – 642
Prediction missed · off by 140 pts
Match videos
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