Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

619.25 – 576.68

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

633 – 652

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 874.1 ±9.3

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 79.3Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 293.77Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 246.18Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 959.7 ±9.8

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 172.24Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 268.17Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 136.27Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6766, 7558, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

619.3 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6766, 7558, 4522

Auto

140.9 23%

Teleop

306.1 51%

Endgame

153.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9483, 117, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

576.7 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9483, 117, 955

Auto

108.6 19%

Teleop

328.9 58%

Endgame

130.5 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score619.3pts

Blue projected score576.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.6
Score range: 505–691
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1285 vs event baseline 401.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

874.1Season APEX959.7

140.9Auto108.6

306.1Teleop328.9

153.9Endgame130.5

155Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	169	145
teleop	314	309
endgame	140	178
foul	10	20
total	633	652

Result

Final score

633 – 652

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 pts

Match videos

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