Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

541.93 – 617.03

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

379 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 210.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 839.6 ±8.7

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 179.68Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 185.25Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 177Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 808.8 ±8.7

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 120.93Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 240.94Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 255.16Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6324, 4946, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

541.9 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6324, 4946, 2337

Auto

112.7 21%

Teleop

304.4 56%

Endgame

122.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 3255, 67

/ 100 compat

Projected

617 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 422, 3255, 67

Auto

121.1 20%

Teleop

334.4 54%

Endgame

161.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score541.9pts

Blue projected score617pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.1
Score range: 470–689
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 738 vs event baseline 401.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

839.6Season APEX808.8

112.7Auto121.1

304.4Teleop334.4

122.7Endgame161.6

116Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	128
teleop	217	216
endgame	101	0
foul	5	15
total	379	359

Result

Final score

379 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 210.5 pts

Match videos

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