Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

564.94 – 541.56

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

520 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 98.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 792.8 ±9.8

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 171.41Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 175.61Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 217.92Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 780.8 ±8.7

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 184.27Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 153.41Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 203.88Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1792, 179, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

564.9 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1792, 179, 498

Auto

134.0 24%

Teleop

315.1 57%

Endgame

104.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9072, 7220, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

541.6 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9072, 7220, 836

Auto

108.4 20%

Teleop

280.4 53%

Endgame

141.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score564.9pts

Blue projected score541.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: 470–637
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 910 vs event baseline 401.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

792.8Season APEX780.8

134Auto108.4

315.1Teleop280.4

104.2Endgame141.3

87Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	144	108
teleop	275	214
endgame	61	63
foul	40	5
total	520	390

Result

Final score

520 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 98.3 pts

Match videos

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